2024 Tax Impact Calculator

About the Numbers

• Based on 2024 projections: taxes of $11,729 without development vs. $10,692 with development (on a $360,000 home).
• Homeowner Savings With Development: This represents an 8.84% savings, scaled to your home's value.
• Without Development, Increasing Residential Tax Burden: Residential property values are expected to rise in value by 35–50% in the town’s next revaluation, far more than commercial real estate and shifting even more of the tax burden onto homeowners going forward.
• In 2004, only 82.6% of the real estate on the Grand List was residential, with the rest of the real estate tax being commercial property.
• By 2024, residential had grown to 86.5% of the Grand List’s real estate value.
• With the coming increase in residential values, residential will be close to 91% of the Grand List’s real estate value. With continued home appreciation and without commercial development, residential could reach 94% or higher of the Grand List’s real estate value in the next few years.
• Middlebury’s town budget is projected to see recurring 5%/year expense increases, driven by 6-7%/year school cost inflation and 3%/year increases in other costs. Over 5 years this will produce a 27% higher budget that, without offsetting taxes from commercial development, will require ever increasing homeowner taxes.
• Expanding commercial development = lower taxes for residents: Commercial development adds to the tax base and helps offset this impact on residents. Even a modest increase in commercial properties could add to the town’s taxable base and reduce mill rate pressure.
• The expected combined value of Southford Park and Straits Turnpike projects is $90MM, or 7.5% of the ’24 Grand List.
• Southford Park and Straits Turnpike are estimated to contribute $2.7 million annually in new tax revenue based on 2024 Grand List & budget. Additionally, they are projected to generate $1.8MM of one-time fees for the town for building & earthwork permits.
• Commercial properties are net payers to a town’s tax base, as they consume far fewer services than they fund in taxes. A study by the American Farmland Trust shows that residential property in CT consumes $1.11 for every $1.00 of tax paid, while farmland ($0.34) and commercial property ($0.26) pay in excess of their consumption and greatly subsidize services that benefit residents. This means that commercial property funds a 74% funding surplus, while residential property causes an 11% funding deficit for every dollar of tax paid.
• Homeowners in residential-only towns pay up to 2x more in property taxes: According to the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, cities like Detroit and Bridgeport—where the tax base is mostly residential—have effective property tax rates over 2.2%, while cities with a stronger commercial base like Denver and Boston often stay below 1%.
• Homes in high-tax towns are worth less: A 2023 Iowa State study found that each additional $1 per $1,000 in property tax rate lowers home values by 0.16%. Compared to Oxford’s 20 mills, Middlebury’s 32.6 mill rate could mean diverging home values over time with Middlebury values falling 5–10% relative to what they would be under a more balanced tax structure.
• Tax burden impacts home appreciation: An analysis by Pepperdine University (Valadez & Smith) found that states (and towns) with lower property tax burdens had higher median home values and stronger appreciation, even after controlling for other variables. Taxes aren’t just a yearly cost—they affect long-term wealth.
• Middlebury’s mill rate is significantly higher than nearby towns: For FY2024–25, Middlebury’s mill rate is 32.6 mills, compared to 23.6 in Southbury and just 20.0 in Oxford. That puts Middlebury up to 63% higher, despite similar home values and public service needs. Greater commercial development can add to the tax base, lowering the mill rate and offsetting this pressure on homeowners.
• Middlebury’s housing costs more in taxes for the same home: A $400,000 assessed home pays about ~$13,000/year in property taxes in Middlebury, versus $8,000 in Oxford — a $5,000 difference annually just based on mill rate.